Hurricane Season Mid-Point Check: What NOAA's August Update (75% Odds of a Below-Normal Season) Means for Your Palm Beach County Rental

Owner Guide · NOAA August Update · Palm Beach County, FL

By Jean Taveras, Broker-Owner, Atlis Property Management · Updated October 2026

Every August, NOAA updates its Atlantic hurricane outlook, and every August owners read the headline number and decide how worried to be. That is the wrong use of the forecast. A seasonal outlook describes how busy the Atlantic basin is expected to be overall. It says nothing about whether a particular storm will reach Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, West Palm Beach, or Boca Raton.

This guide reads the 2026 update carefully, sets it next to the May outlook and the season to date, and turns it into a short list of things a Palm Beach County rental owner can confirm this month. It quotes NOAA's own figures, names the date of each one, and does not guess at what the rest of the season will bring. For the full shutters, supplies, and tenant-notice checklist, see our 2026 hurricane prep guide for South Florida landlords.

What NOAA's August 2026 Update Actually Said

NOAA issued its updated outlook on August 6, 2026. Forecasters from the National Weather Service set the expected range for the full season, June 1 through November 30, at 7 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 2 to 6 could become hurricanes (74 mph or greater), including 0 to 2 major hurricanes (111 mph or greater). The ranges include the two tropical storms that had already formed. NOAA put the probabilities at a 75% chance of below-normal activity, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of above-normal activity.

The Climate Prediction Center's technical discussion adds two details. In the CPC discussion, the ranges carry a 70% probability each, meaning activity is expected to fall within them in 70% of seasons with similar conditions. And the ranges are centered below the 1991–2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA's release named El Nino as the dominant factor, because it increases wind shear, which tends to keep tropical storms from forming or strengthening.

How the update compared with May

NOAA's first outlook, issued May 21, 2026, also called for a below-normal season. The August update moved the odds further in that direction and trimmed every range.

Sources: NOAA news releases of May 21 and August 6, 2026, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's August 2026 outlook discussion.

Where the Season Stands as of October 7, 2026

The forecast is a range for the whole season, so it helps to check the count against it. The National Hurricane Center's 2026 North Atlantic tropical weather summary, as of 21 UTC on October 7, 2026, lists 9 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 major hurricanes so far, all tropical storms, with Isaias marked as active. In the same table, NHC compares the totals with the 1991–2020 normal: 2 fewer named storms, 5 fewer hurricanes, and 2 fewer major hurricanes.

Those are facts to date, not a forecast. The season officially ends on November 30, and NOAA's outlook does not tell anyone when or where the next storm will form. For live information on any active system, NOAA directs the public to hurricanes.gov, the National Hurricane Center's site.

What the Outlook Does Not Tell a Palm Beach County Owner

NOAA is direct about the limits of its own product. Its August release says the hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast, and that landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns that are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching land. In other words, NOAA's 75% figure describes the Atlantic basin, not your street.

For an owner, that means the outlook should not change what gets done to the property. Insurance, shutters, tenant communication, and vendor arrangements take days or weeks to sort out. A storm with a forecast track toward the county gives you days. The preparation has to exist before the forecast exists. The same NOAA release quotes the National Weather Service director making a related point: inland rainfall is a major cause of damage, and it is important to prepare for every storm projected to affect your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.

Your Hurricane Deductible: Find the Dollar Figure Now

The single most useful number to know before a storm is your hurricane deductible in dollars. Florida's insurance code sets several rules for it in §627.701. This is general information; your agent can confirm how each rule applies to your specific landlord policy.

• Offered amounts. Under §627.701(3)(a), before issuing a personal lines residential property policy, the insurer must offer alternative hurricane deductibles of $500, 2 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent of the policy dwelling limits, with exceptions for certain dwelling limits listed in the statute.
• Dollar value on the declarations page. Under subsection (4)(b), for personal lines residential policies with a separate hurricane deductible, the insurer must compute and prominently display the actual dollar value of the hurricane deductible on the declarations page at issuance, and at renewal on the renewal declarations page or premium renewal notice.
• Calendar-year application. Under subsection (5)(a), for personal lines residential policies issued or renewed on or after May 1, 2005, the hurricane deductible applies on an annual basis to all covered hurricane losses in the calendar year, and an insurer may require policyholders to report losses below the deductible or keep receipts so they can count toward a later hurricane claim.
• Commercial residential policies. Under subsection (5)(b), insurers must offer commercial residential policyholders a choice between an annual hurricane deductible and one that applies to each hurricane.

A percentage deductible is calculated on the dwelling limit, not on the size of the loss. As a labeled hypothetical, a policy with $400,000 of dwelling coverage and a 2 percent hurricane deductible would carry an $8,000 deductible ($400,000 × 2%), and at 5 percent it would be $20,000 ($400,000 × 5%). Every input there is an assumption for illustration. Put your own declarations-page figure in your reserve plan. Our hurricane insurance and shutters guide covers coverage types, and our Palm Beach Gardens insurance value gap report explains how to check whether your dwelling limit still matches the cost to rebuild.

The Late-Season Owner Checklist

None of these steps depends on the forecast, and each is easier now than in the days before a storm.

1. Confirm coverage. Policy active, dwelling limit current, hurricane deductible known in dollars, loss-of-rents coverage understood, and your agent's after-hours claim line saved.
2. Update the photo record. Dated photos and video of every room, the roof, the exterior, and major systems. A claim is easier to support with a before record.
3. Settle the shutter plan. Who installs and removes shutters, where they are stored, and who has access if the tenant is away. Put it in the lease or a signed addendum.
4. Confirm tenant contacts. Phone, email, and an emergency contact for every adult on the lease, so storm notices reach the people living there.
5. Line up vendors. Know which licensed and insured vendors you will call for tarping, water removal, tree work, and electrical checks, and agree on a spending limit for emergency work.
6. Know the evacuation zone. Look up the address on the state's Know Your Zone page and share it with the tenant. Palm Beach County's Division of Emergency Management posts local orders and shelter information.
7. Secure what can move. Patio furniture, potted plants, and pool equipment become projectiles. Decide in writing whether the tenant or a vendor handles them.

Seasonal owners who are away for part of the year face extra steps; our guide for out-of-state owners in Jupiter and Palm Beach Gardens covers remote oversight, and owners of vacant seasonal homes can read about home watch and estate care.

Tenants, Access, and Casualty Damage Under Florida Law

Two sections of Florida's landlord-tenant law come up most often around storms. Under §83.53(2), the landlord may enter the dwelling unit at any time for the protection or preservation of the premises; entry for repair otherwise requires at least 24 hours' notice and a time between 7:30 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. Under §83.63, if the premises are damaged or destroyed other than by the tenant's wrongful or negligent acts, so that enjoyment is substantially impaired, the tenant may terminate the rental agreement and vacate, or vacate the unusable part with rent reduced by the fair rental value of that part. Our summary of Florida landlord-tenant law covers the rest of Chapter 83.

The rent at stake explains why a fast recovery matters. As of October 7, 2026, PBP Real Estate reported median asking rents of $4,800 a month in Jupiter, $3,100 in Boca Raton, and $2,200 in West Palm Beach. On a $3,100 rent, each month a home cannot be occupied forgoes $3,100 before repairs, and each day about $102 ($3,100 × 12 ÷ 365). Our guide to budgeting for vacancies and unexpected costs shows how to size a reserve for that.

Common Mistakes Owners Make After a Below-Normal Forecast

• Reading the outlook as a landfall forecast. NOAA says plainly that it is not one.
• Standing down before November 30. The season's end date does not move with the forecast.
• Not knowing the deductible in dollars. A percentage on a renewal notice is easy to misjudge; the declarations page shows the number.
• No shutter plan in writing. A storm is the worst time to negotiate who climbs the ladder.
• Stale tenant contacts. Notices that reach a disconnected number protect no one.
• Calling vendors for the first time when a storm is days away. Agree on scope, insurance, and a spending limit in advance.
• Cleaning up before documenting. Photograph and date the damage first, then mitigate, and keep every receipt.

Rising premiums are a separate problem from storm preparation; our look at insurance costs and Jupiter investment returns covers that side.

How Atlis Prepares Managed Homes

Our maintenance service runs 24/7 AI-assisted triage, so a storm-related request at 2 a.m. reaches the right vendor, and vendors bill at their invoice with no markup. Before and after storms, the work is practical: confirming tenant contacts, documenting the home with dated photos, arranging repairs, and keeping owners informed. Our eight written guarantees put our commitments in writing, including no maintenance markup.

Frequently Asked Questions

If you would like a second set of eyes on your storm plan, from the deductible on your declarations page to the shutter clause in your lease, we are glad to walk through it with you.