Palm Beach County Landlord Alert · Hurricane Season Update · September 2026

Hurricane Season Mid-Point Check: What NOAA's August Update Means for Your Palm Beach County Rental

By Jean Taveras, Broker-Owner, Atlis Property Management  ·  Updated September 2026

Halfway through Atlantic hurricane season, the headline number looks reassuring: NOAA now gives 2026 a 75% chance of finishing below normal. For landlords across Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Delray Beach, Boynton Beach, Riviera Beach, and the rest of Palm Beach County, it's worth understanding exactly what that forecast does and doesn't tell you before treating it as a reason to relax preparation. For the full property-specific prep checklist — shutters, insurance documentation, and tenant communication templates — see Atlis's complete hurricane preparedness guide; this update focuses specifically on what changed in the forecast and what it means for timing.

What NOAA Actually Updated

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised its below-normal probability from 55% in the May outlook to 75% in the August update, now projecting 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes for the full season. That's meaningfully below the 1991-2020 average of roughly 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The primary driver forecasters point to is a strengthening El Nino pattern in the Pacific, which tends to increase upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic's main development region -- shear that makes it harder for tropical waves to organize into storms and harder for existing storms to intensify.

As of the first week of August, the season had produced two named storms, Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha, both forming in the Gulf rather than the long-track Atlantic systems El Nino tends to suppress most. Neither reached hurricane strength. Colorado State University's independent August 5 outlook was somewhat less optimistic than NOAA's, projecting nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane -- still below average, but a reminder that different forecasting teams don't always converge on identical numbers.

Why the Timing of This Update Matters

The climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, and more than 60% of a typical season's total tropical activity occurs in the six-week stretch between August 20 and September 30. NOAA's August update, in other words, arrives right before the season's historically busiest window opens, not after it closes. A season running behind its average pace in early August has, historically, still gone on to produce significant late-August and September activity in many years -- the below-normal probability describes the full-season total, not a guarantee that the remaining peak weeks stay quiet.

What El Nino Actually Changes About Storm Behavior

El Nino's suppressing effect on Atlantic hurricanes comes primarily through wind shear -- strong upper-level winds that can tear apart a developing storm's structure before it organizes, or weaken an already-formed storm by disrupting the vertical alignment it needs to maintain intensity. Some forecast models suggest the current El Nino event could become one of the strongest since record-keeping began around 1950, with conditions potentially strengthening further between October and December. If that holds, shear could remain elevated even later into the season than typical El Nino years, which is part of why forecasters describe this as a meaningfully suppressed season rather than just a modestly quiet one.

That said, El Nino's influence isn't uniform across the entire Atlantic basin at all times. Shear tends to be less consistent in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean than in the open Atlantic's main development region, which is part of why both of this season's named storms so far, Arthur and Bertha, formed in the Gulf rather than as long-track Cabo Verde-type systems. A hurricane season shaped by El Nino doesn't eliminate risk in these closer-to-home basins -- it shifts where formation is more or less likely, which is a nuance a single seasonal percentage doesn't fully capture.

What to Confirm Before Mid-September

The Recovery Window Deserves Attention Too

Most hurricane preparation content focuses entirely on the lead-up to a storm, but the days and weeks after landfall are when a meaningful share of preventable damage and disputes actually happen. If a storm does affect a Palm Beach County property this season, having a plan for the recovery window matters as much as the pre-storm checklist: documenting any damage with dated photos before cleanup begins, keeping receipts for any emergency mitigation work like tarping a roof, and knowing your policy's claims-filing deadline rather than assuming there's unlimited time to report damage.

For rental properties specifically, the recovery period is also when tenant communication matters most -- confirming habitability status, coordinating any temporary relocation if the unit is uninhabitable, and being clear about the timeline for repairs. A property owner who has this workflow figured out before a storm ever forms is in a dramatically better position than one improvising it in the days immediately after landfall, when contractors, adjusters, and even basic supplies are hardest to secure.

How Atlis Approaches a Below-Normal Forecast

Atlis doesn't adjust property preparation based on seasonal outlook probabilities, because a 75% chance of a below-normal season is still a real chance of an active one, and the properties Atlis manages get the same pre-season readiness checks regardless of what NOAA's percentage happens to say in a given year. The forecast is useful context for understanding the season's overall shape; it isn't a signal to change how individual properties get prepared.

“A quieter forecast is genuinely good news, and I don't want to talk anyone out of feeling some relief about it. But we've managed through seasons that were forecast as quiet and still brought a storm to South Florida, and we've been fine because the prep work happened in August regardless of what the percentage said. That's the only number that actually matters at the property level.”

— Jean Taveras, Broker-Owner, Atlis Property Management · FL Broker CQ1071712

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